Month-To-Date Market Statistics
October 07, 2024
Please Note
Left Column: shows interim counts for all property types so far this month
Right Column: shows final counts for all property types for the same month last year
Highlights *article from bcrea
Canadian bond yields falling as markets expect deep rate cuts by US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.
Economic growth slowed through the summer but will lower rates stimulate a second half recovery?
The Bank of Canada is on a glide path to a 2.75 per cent policy rate.
Mortgage Rate Outlook
Canadian mortgage rates continue to fall, with the Bank of Canada in the early stages of what could be deep policy rate reductions and the US Federal Reserve on the verge of beginning its own cutting cycle.
The key question for mortgage rates going forward is where the Bank of Canada is going to stop. If the destination for the overnight rate is 2.75 per cent, the midpoint of the Bank’s “neutral range,” historical data implies a five-year bond of about 3.25 per cent and a five-year mortgage rate of 4.85 per cent. However, that implies a five-year bond yield that regains its usual 50 basis point spread over the overnight lending rate, a significant increase from its current negative level.
Lingering fears of a weaker-than-expected US economy have pushed markets to expect a more aggressive cutting cycle in Canada and the United States. Consequently, Canadian bond yields have fallen to 2.75 per cent, implying that markets are currently pricing a Bank of Canada overnight rate of 2 to 2.25 per cent. While perhaps over-done, if not reversed, those expectations could drive Canadian fixed mortgage rates even lower, particularly if the economy shows signs of weakening into 2025 rather than rebounding as the Bank is currently forecasting.
Ultimately, we expect that the Bank’s rate cuts will stimulate stronger economic activity, prompting the yield curve to normalize and five-year fixed mortgage rates to settle around 4.85 per cent.
Economic Outlook
Canadian economic growth surpassed the Bank of Canada's expectations in the second quarter but was largely driven by government spending while household consumption slowed. Monthly GDP growth in June slowed, and preliminary estimates for July show further weakness. Moreover, Canadian GDP per capita continues to struggle amidst rapid population growth. Employment has continued to soften from the previous quarter, with the unemployment rate hitting a three-year high of 6.6 per cent in August, as positive job growth has not been enough to keep up with an outsized pace of population growth.
A slowing economy comes in the context of continually improving inflation, which hit 2.5 per cent last month, although price appreciation is still being largely driven by high shelter costs due to pressures in the rental market and a jump in household mortgage costs over the past year. Core measures of inflation have also fallen under 3 per cent and should continue to move lower in the coming months.
We expect the Canadian economy to eke out about 1 per cent growth in 2024 but head into 2025 with some falling interest rate-driven momentum. As such, we could see a somewhat Goldilocks-like Canadian economy in 2025 growing slightly above 2 per cent with inflation falling back to target.
Bank of Canada Outlook
Following three consecutive rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, the focus for each interest rate decision going forward has shifted from whether the Bank will lower rates to how large those rate cuts should be, with some analysts even looking for larger 50 basis points cuts in the future. While the Canadian economy is certainly under-performing, particularly on a per-capita basis, its not clear that the Bank is ready to shift from the current gradual approach implied by the Bank’s inflation forecast.
While the Bank publishes its forecasts for growth and inflation, it does not reveal the assumed path of interestrates that generate those forecasts. However, a comparison of the BCREA macromodel with the Bank of Canada’s reveals a strikingly similar response of inflation to changes in the policy rate in both models. Given a similar inflation forecast from our model to that of the Bank’s, we can get a pretty good sense of the Bank’s thinking on the path of rates over the next year. What that shows is that as long as inflation isn't deviating from expectations, and employment is not significantly weaker, we should see continued rate cuts at an orderly 25 basis points pace until the Bank reaches its neutral range between 2.25 and 3.25 per cent in 2025 with a likely destination of 2.75 per cent by the end of 2025.
Radon is an odourless, invisible gas that seeps up through the ground and can enter a home through unsealed foundations, cracks in the foundation, gaps in construction materials, and plumbing system components, including sump pumps or drains. Radon gas is also a product of uranium decay. Like uranium, it is radioactive; unlike uranium, it can permeate through rocks or soil, escaping into the air or groundwater. All rocks or soil contain some uranium, but granite, shale, and sandy soils are higher in uranium or radon than clay, limestone, or very moist soil.
Concerns arise when radon gas accumulates in living spaces, as radon is highly carcinogenic. It is the second leading cause of lung cancer, behind smoking, causing over 3,000 deaths per year in Canada – almost eight times more than asbestos.
The BC Centre for Disease Control provides a map of certain residential radon testing results across BC,3 but warns that radon gas levels can vary widely from house to house, even in the same neighbourhood.
Cracks in a home’s foundation or bare dirt floors in a crawlspace under the house can provide easy paths for radon to permeate from the soil into living spaces. Due to their improved insulation and airtightness, new homes can accumulate radon gas at even higher levels than older ones. While higher radon levels are found in a home's basement or lower levels, in apartment buildings or towers, radon gas levels can be higher on the top floors due to the “stack effect” or the rise of warmer air.
The radon level in a home can be measured using commercially available and relatively inexpensive radon test kits.4 A proper radon test takes at least 90 days to complete and is often recommended to carry out over the winter when homes are more likely to be sealed up. Opening windows and doors, as folks often do in the warmer months, can vent radon gas, yielding false low results. Shorter-term tests are available but are less accurate.5
If radon gas is detected in a living space, remediation measures can be undertaken to lower its levels. The World Health Organization recommends a threshold level of 100 Bq/m3 (or about 3 pCi/L) for initiating remediation measures. In the US, threshold levels of 4 pCi/L (or 148 Bq/m3) require remediation. Health Canada recommends remediation within two years for any homes with radon gas levels exceeding 200 Bq/m3, and within one year for any homes with radon gas levels exceeding 600 Bq/m3.
As of March 2024, new homes built in BC are required6 to have a radon gas vent pipe installed to allow the venting of soil gases from the ground beneath the basement or crawlspace to the roof or exterior of the building. This pipe is called a passive sub-slab depressurization system. While often effective at reducing high radon concentrations, a passive sub-slab depressurization system may not bring those concentrations below the guideline levels. The British Columbia Building Code does not require builders to install a fan system in the pipe to turn this into an active sub-slab depressurization system. However, homeowners may wish to install a fan system to reach levels below the recommended threshold.
Older homes can be retrofitted with radon gas mitigation systems that can range from relatively passive methods, such as sealing porous concrete and repairing any cracks in basements or crawlspaces, to more active and costly methods, such as installing a heat recovery ventilation fan in the basement or the whole home or installing a passive or active sub-slab depressurization system like those required in new home construction.
Property owners are not required to conduct radon testing of their properties. Still, sellers are encouraged to disclose in writing (for example, in the Property Disclosure Statement) whether they have carried out any radon testing and, if so, what the results were.
Released to media today:
Victoria real estate market current conditions benefit buyers and sellers
A total of 571 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this September, 15.8 per cent more than the 493 properties sold in September 2023 and a 4.8 per cent increase from August 2024. Sales of condominiums were up 21.9 per cent from September 2023 with 189 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased by 19.3 per cent from September 2023 with 272 sold.
“The real estate market in Victoria right now is much more stable and more predictable than it has been in recent years,” said 2024 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone. “We have seen a few solid months of near-balance in the market, which means it’s neither a seller’s nor a buyer’s market and positives exist for both sides of a transaction. With downward trending interest rates and stable pricing combined with more inventory on the market, our current conditions are the most comfortable for consumers to navigate that I’ve seen in a few years.”
There were 3,361 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of September 2024, an increase of 5.3 per cent compared to the previous month of August and a 24.5 per cent increase from the 2,699 active listings for sale at the end of September 2023.
“In times of more balanced markets,” adds Chair Lidstone. “There is less pressure on pricing and more opportunity to take time to make big decisions on real estate. However, there are still situations where you can encounter competition. When the house, price and location are all highly desirable for buyers, we can see situations where there are competing offers. As always if you are thinking about making a move, connecting with a local REALTOR® to start building your strategy is advisable.”
The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in September 2023 was $1,316,100. The benchmark value for the same home in September 2024 decreased by 2.8 per cent to $1,279,700, down from August’s value of $1,287,400. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in September 2023 was $583,400 while the benchmark value for the same condominium in September 2024 decreased by 5.1 per cent to $553,400, down from the August value of $559,200.
Please Note
Economic conditions might not be ideal, but the proponents behind two of Victoria’s largest mixed-use developments insist they are still forging ahead with the projects.
Both Focus Equities, which is behind the Roundhouse project in Vic West, and Starlight Investments, which has plans to re-imagine a large swath of the Harris Green neighbourhood, say despite the headwinds of high interest rates and the rising costs of labour and materials, the projects remain on track.
Ken Mariash, principal at Focus Equities, said after devoting more than 25 years to the Roundhouse project he’s not about to fold his tent.
“I might as well finish the thing,” he said.
Howard Paskowitz, Starlight Investments vice-president of development, said they intend to start construction on the 1000-block of Yates Street before the end of this year.
That kind of confidence has not been flowing freely in the development community.
Kathy Whitcher, chief executive of the Urban Development Institute, a national non-profit association of the development industry, said the economic landscape is troubling.
“The economics are not working still and yet municipalities continue to bump up fees,” she said, noting Victoria recently adopted new development cost charges that in some cases could more than double the fees developers pay for required infrastructure upgrades to handle new development.
“Developers are starting to pull out,” she said, noting many projects have been on the edge of either going ahead or put on pause. “I’ve heard a few developers have pulled right out of the business.”
Whitcher said for some developers in Victoria the future of their projects depends on where they are in the process.
If the projects aren’t far enough down the road they may get hit with the increase in development cost charges which could tip them into unprofitable territory.
Developer Mike Miller, founder of Abstract Developments, said he knows of some developers who are on the edge and in danger of going out of business, while there are a lot of projects that are forging ahead with no hope of finding a profit at the end.
He said the cost of construction is the biggest killer, followed by interest rates.
Miller said inflation since the pandemic has all but wiped out the profit margin in many projects, including at least one of his own.
“In one instance I hope to get out even at the end of the project,” he said.
Miller said a lot of the projects currently underway were committed before the costs started to increase, and with any delay along the way the chances of making a profit ebbed.
Miller, who has 300 residential units being built at six locations, with another 500 units planned, said there may be some relief with the central bank cutting interest rates.
“That will help with consumer confidence,” he said.
The Roundhouse project, which includes 1,870 residential units in nine towers ranging from 10 to 32 storeys, was given approval by Victoria council in January.
Mariash said work on the site at 251 Esquimalt Rd., 210 Kimta Rd. and 355 Catherine St. is dependent on working out details and ironing out wrinkles with the city.
While he had hoped to get shovels into the dirt this year, he does not expect an agreement with the city until the end of this year or early next.
He admits in any other city he may not be forging ahead having spent millions in carrying costs for the site he bought 25 years ago.
“If someone had told me it would be $200 million and not $50 million, who knows,” Mariash said. “When I started this I was 49, now I’m 77.”
Starlight’s Paskowitz would only say that “plans remain on track with the development of Harris Green Village.”
That project, approved in the spring of 2023, aims to reimagine the 1000 and 900 blocks of Yates and View streets in a project that’s expected to unfold over three phases.
The plan is to tear down all the commercial buildings on the two blocks to make way for a project that will include five residential towers with about 1,500 rental suites, about 100,000 square feet of commercial buildings, and green space.
The first phase of the project, at 1045 Yates St., which used to house an auto dealership, will have purpose-built rental residential towers of 21 and 20 storeys, nearly half an acre of green space for a community park, a daycare and retail. The old buildings are demolished, but the site has been largely idle for months.
Rory Kulmala, chief executive of the Vancouver Island Construction Association, said the industry has been working flat out for years with the push to add housing everywhere and it may be running into a capacity issue.
“We’ve got a lot of big projects that are either going or are wrapping up and until we kind of finish what’s on our plate, it’s pretty tough to kind of go back to the buffet and load it up again,” he said. “Ultimately there’s a tonne of work that has to be done, but our labour force hasn’t really changed in 15 years.”
Kulmala said the construction tempo has more than doubled at the same time, so they are doing more with fewer bodies.
“We can only build so much, so fast right now,” he said.
A potentially precedent-setting ruling from the Residential Tenancy Branch has prompted B.C. Minister of Housing Ravi Kahlon to review regulations for special rent increase applications from landlords.
At issue is the recently published May 8 ruling that allowed a landlord to increase the rent charged to their four tenants by an extra 23.5 per cent because the landlord claimed their increase in mortgage financing costs, due to a sharp rise in interest rates in 2022, “could not have been foreseen under reasonable circumstances.”
Questions are now being asked in the B.C. real estate industry as to whether this will prompt more applications for rent increases beyond those allowed by the provincial government.
“Landlords will definitely apply,” said Keaton Bessey, owner and managing broker at Greater Vancouver Tenant and Property Management.
Last February, the branch received an application from company Kriss Canada Ltd. claiming it needed to increase the rent of its tenants by 23.5 per cent in addition to the government-mandated rent control increase of 3.5 per cent for 2024.
In B.C., landlords must apply to the branch for such increases beyond the rent control cap, set annually by the ministry.
Bessey said such applications typically involve increases for one-time capital infrastructure improvements, such as new pipes.
However, Kriss Canada utilized what Bessey said has been an otherwise dormant regulation that allows a landlord to apply for a special rent increase for financial losses incurred for the financing costs of purchasing a property.
Kriss Canada claimed that it was entitled to impose the additional rent increase after incurring a financial loss for the financing costs of purchasing the residential property, having not foreseen under “reasonable circumstances” a historic rise in interest rates and having “acted reasonably” — both criteria the regulation stipulates as a requirement for a successful application.
The ruling states Kriss Canada Ltd., represented by “Landlord S.O. and Landlord K.O.,” purchased a four-plex home in October 2021 with an initial interest rate of 1.9 per cent on a variable mortgage from a Canadian bank.
In the intervening time, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rates from 0.25 per cent to 5.0 per cent, causing the landlord’s financing costs to soar to $80,058.99 in 2023, as opposed to $45,722.44 in 2022.
In April 2023, the landlord asked the four tenants to pay an extra $500 per month each; however, the tenants “were not agreeable,” the ruling noted.
The ruling addresses some thinking behind the landlord’s assessment of its own situation: “The Landlords stated that if they fixed their interest rate in 2023, the penalty would be very large. It was too early in their mortgage term.”
Two tenants identified as “V.D.” and “M.S.” told the branch that with a variable rate mortgage “it is reasonably foreseeable that the rate will change” and the landlord ought to have had a financial cushion to absorb increases. Tenant M.S. offered to pay an extra $50.
The branch arbitrator, who is not named in the ruling, accepted the landlord’s story that it did have a cushion but the rates rose too quickly and sharply.
“I find the world and economic events in reaction to the pandemic were not reasonably foreseeable and have impacted the Landlords, despite them taking reasonable precautions by accessing a mortgage through a recognized and well-known lender. I find the landlords exercised care, foresight, judgment, financial prudence, and due diligence in purchasing and financing the residential property, but significant increases in the mortgage interest rate occurred due to unforeseen events,” the arbitrator wrote.
The arbitrator then allowed the landlord to increase rent amounts by 23.5 per cent extra, over two years, causing rents to increase from between $1,282 and $1,550 to between $1,628.14 and $1,968.50, per month (not factoring in the standard 2025 increase).
Names of the landlords and tenants were redacted from the ruling and the location of the property was not disclosed by the arbitrator. Kriss Canada Ltd. was incorporated in Alberta in 2016 and has an attorney named Niranjan Konepally with a Terrace address, according to BC Registry Service. Glacier Media was unable to contact any of the parties involved for further comment.
Although Bessey has been publicly outspoken on social media against rent control, he called the ruling “weird” and “completely ridiculous” on account that the branch is in no position to assess financial planning.
“Nobody asked this person to go out and get a loan and buy a property,” said Bessey, who suggests the regulation is out of touch with reality.
“A loan on an investment property is personal to the owner. The loan is your problem. But if the pipes fall apart, it costs the same for whoever is doing it,” said Bessey.
Bessey described the nature of branch decisions as being fairly arbitrary on a case-by-case basis.
And while expressing doubt as to whether a precedent may be set from this decision, Bessey speculates the branch will see more such applications, particularly after greater publicity of this one case. But whether they will succeed is another matter, he added.
Hunter Boucher, vice-president of operations at Landlord BC, a non-profit advocacy and lobby group, also expressed doubts a precedent will be set.
“This process has been longstanding. It’s not new. That being said, applications under this (regulation) are exceedingly rare, especially over the past nearly 20 years,” as there has not been such a dramatic rise in interest rates, said Boucher.
Another matter at play, said Boucher, is that the regulation stipulates the financing losses are associated with the purchase of a property, so such applications are likely only relevant to landlords who only recently bought an investment property.
“If you’re renewing at this point, it’s hard to say it’s unforeseen,” said Boucher.
“We will see a bit of an increase in these decisions but a huge increase, certainly not,” Boucher speculated.
And, said Boucher, “the lack of decisions for these kinds of increases makes it difficult to determine how future decisions may go.”
Despite his opposition to policies that are unfavourable to landlords, Bessey said it would be “political suicide if they let this keep going” and “a lot of landlords think this is stupid.”
Notably, the regulations do not allow a tenant to claim lower rent should interest rates drop after having higher rent imposed on them via a special application.
Housing Minister Kahlon declined an opportunity to speak to the ruling; however, his communications staff provided a statement attributable to Kahlon:
“Renters are struggling with the high cost of rent. That's why we are taking action to fight the housing crisis and ensure renters have a home they can afford. Since 2018, we have kept rental increases at or below inflation, below the rate set by the previous government.
“The policy that allows these kinds of exceptional rental increases because of financing is an old policy from the old government and this is the first time an application like this has been granted since we started collecting data in 2021.
“I know people have a lot of questions and I've directed staff to review this policy and how it impacts renters in the current context.”
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millstream village in Langford bc Like to shop? Check out the Millstream Village in Langford BC Boutique shop and dinning. #troysdeals #troysdeals #langfordrealestateagent
Here is a detailed list of the stores and services you can find at Millstream Village in Langford, BC:
Homes and Condos for sale near millstream village.
www.LangfordListings.com
Map and Directory of stores at the millstream village
Retail Stores
Costco Wholesale - Membership-based warehouse club with a wide range of products.
Best Buy - Electronics, home appliances, and tech products.
Winners - Discount fashion, footwear, and home goods.
Michaels - Arts and crafts supplies.
PetSmart - Pet supplies, grooming, and services.
Golf Town - Golf equipment and apparel.
Sleep Country Canada - Mattresses and sleep accessories.
Bouclair - Home decor and furniture.
Grocery and Specialty Food
Market on Millstream - Fresh and local groceries.
Bulk Barn - Bulk food retailer.
Liquor Depot - Wide selection of alcoholic beverages.
Starbucks - Coffee and beverages.
Dining Options
Milestones Grill + Bar - Casual dining restaurant.
A&W - Fast food with a focus on burgers.
Subway - Sandwiches and salads.
Mucho Burrito - Mexican-inspired cuisine.
Booster Juice - Smoothies and health-focused snacks.
Health and Beauty
London Drugs - Pharmacy and retail store.
Great Clips - Hair salon.
Chatters Hair Salon - Full-service hair salon.
Spinnakers Spirit Merchants - Specialty liquor store.
Sally Beauty - Beauty supplies and hair care products.
Services
CIBC - Banking services.
Bell - Mobile and internet services.
Rogers - Mobile and internet services.
Simply Computing - Apple product retailer and service provider.
Money Mart - Financial services, including payday loans and check cashing.
Specialty Stores
Dollarama - Discount store with a variety of products.
Millstream Village offers a comprehensive range of stores and services, catering to various shopping and dining needs. If you have any specific questions or need more detailed information, feel free to ask!
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clay tennis courts
Bear Mountain Resort in Langford, BC, offers clay tennis courts as part of its comprehensive sports and recreation facilities. Here are some details about the clay tennis courts at Bear Mountain:
Homes and Condos for Sale in Bear Mountain
Facilities and Features
Number of Courts: Bear Mountain has a number of clay tennis courts, providing ample space for both recreational play and competitive matches.
Surface: The clay courts at Bear Mountain are designed to provide a high-quality playing experience, with a well-maintained surface that enhances playability and comfort.
Clubhouse and Amenities: The tennis facilities include a clubhouse with amenities such as locker rooms, a pro shop, and areas for players to relax and socialize.
Lighting: Some courts may be equipped with lighting, allowing for evening play.
Lessons and Programs: Bear Mountain offers tennis lessons and programs for players of all ages and skill levels, including private coaching, group lessons, and junior programs.
Tournaments and Events: The resort hosts tennis tournaments and events, providing opportunities for competitive play and social gatherings.
Benefits of Playing on Clay Courts at Bear Mountain
Scenic Environment: Nestled in a beautiful natural setting, the clay courts at Bear Mountain offer stunning views and a serene atmosphere for playing tennis.
Health and Fitness: Playing on clay courts can be beneficial for joint health due to the softer surface, reducing the risk of injuries compared to harder surfaces.
Skill Development: The slower pace and higher bounce of clay courts can help players develop endurance, strategy, and technique, particularly in baseline play and footwork.
Access and Membership
Membership Options: Bear Mountain offers various membership options for individuals and families, providing access to the tennis facilities and other resort amenities.
Guest Access: Non-members may also have the opportunity to use the tennis courts through day passes or by booking court time, depending on availability.
Location
Bear Mountain Resort is located in Langford, BC, making it easily accessible for residents and visitors in the Greater Victoria area.
Clay tennis courts are a popular surface choice for both recreational and professional tennis players. Here are some key facts about them:
Characteristics
Surface Material: Clay courts are made of crushed shale, stone, or brick.
Color: The most common color for clay courts is red, though green clay courts (also known as Har-Tru) are also prevalent in the United States.
Playing Conditions
Slower Pace: Clay courts are known for slowing down the ball and producing a high bounce compared to hard and grass courts. This makes rallies longer and points more strategic.
Sliding: Players often slide into their shots, which requires different movement and footwork techniques compared to other surfaces.
Spin-Friendly: The surface tends to enhance topspin, which can be an advantage for players who use heavy topspin in their game.
Maintenance
Regular Care: Clay courts require daily maintenance, including brushing the lines, watering the surface, and rolling to keep the clay compact and even.
Weather Impact: These courts are more affected by weather conditions. They can become muddy and unplayable in the rain but provide excellent playing conditions when properly maintained and dry.
Professional Tournaments
French Open: The most famous clay court tournament is the French Open, held at Roland Garros in Paris.
European Tournaments: Many professional tournaments on the ATP and WTA tours in Europe are played on clay, especially during the spring leading up to the French Open.
Advantages and Disadvantages
Advantages:
Softer surface, reducing the risk of joint injuries.
Slower pace can be beneficial for baseline players.
Longer rallies can improve endurance and strategy.
Disadvantages:
Requires significant maintenance.
Can be difficult to play on for players not accustomed to sliding.
Matches tend to be longer, which can be physically demanding.
Notable Clay Court Players
Rafael Nadal: Often referred to as the "King of Clay," Nadal has won numerous French Open titles and excels on clay surfaces.
Chris Evert: Dominated the women's game on clay in the 1970s and 1980s, winning seven French Open titles.
Interesting Facts
Training Ground: Many players train on clay to develop endurance and improve their baseline game.
Historical Evolution: The first clay courts were created in the late 19th century as a way to keep grass courts from drying out in hot climates.
These characteristics make clay courts a unique and integral part of tennis, offering a different playing experience compared to hard and grass courts.